Despite a history of clashes between India and China, it is unclear whether this latest border skirmish will spark a larger conflict. This is partly due to the ill-defined 3,440km (2,100-mile) disputed border, which can shift in various ways depending on rains, snowcaps and other factors. Rivers, lakes and mountains also create natural barriers that can lead to face-offs between troops.
This latest clash was triggered by the apparent intrusion of Chinese military vehicles into Indian territory in the Himalayas near the disputed Line of Actual Control, the de facto border between India and China. The two sides exchanged fire. Both troops suffered minor injuries.
The incident follows the deployment of more than 3,000 Chinese soldiers to the disputed region, which has led to increased tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
While a border skirmish may seem harmless, it can escalate rapidly into a full-blown crisis, as happened in 1969 after Mao showcased the Zhenbao Island battle heroes at the 9th Party Congress and provoked the Soviets in Xinjiang. Fortunately, the death of Ho Chi Minh brought Beijing and Moscow together to start difficult talks that helped calm tensions and avert a war.
However, these talks will not solve the underlying structural challenges in China-India relations, leaving ample room for another skirmish to occur. This is not the first time that the two countries have fought over their Himalayan borders; in June 2020, they were involved in one of the worst border clashes since 1975 in the Galwan Valley.
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