The announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas came after 15 months of conflict that left tens of thousands dead and shattered Gaza’s economy and social fabric. It will be implemented in three phases. The first is expected to last for six weeks and involve an exchange of Israeli and Palestinian prisoners, the withdrawal of Israel forces from Gaza and the opening of crossings. It will also include the rebuilding of Gaza, a process that could take years and be overseen by organizations such as Islamic Relief.
Despite the challenges, this truce is a good thing and is long overdue. It will finally bring an end to the devastation and suffering of civilians in the enclave, including the destruction of their homes. It will also allow for a more sustained delivery of aid to those in need.
However, the success of this initiative will be dependent on many factors. One key challenge is ensuring that the agreement will be honored by both sides. Historically, conflict has generated a lot of enmity and distrust between adversaries. As such, ceasefire agreements often fail to stick due to the efforts of hardliners on both sides. These “conflict profiteers” benefit from the ongoing hostilities and may seek to undermine a truce.
To counter this tendency, third parties that have incentives to support the implementation of a truce are important. They can highlight the benefits of a ceasefire and assuage fears that bolster arguments of those who oppose it. They can also provide added incentives and pressure to ensure that parties comply with their commitments.
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